The USA BMX Pro Title Chase - A Connor Fields Breakdown

Shhhhh…. The arena goes quiet….

RIDERS READY, WATCH THE GATE….

There is nothing quite like the pressure of main event number three at the USABMX Grand Nationals. An entire season (and lifetime really) of work comes down to this one moment. Who can handle the pressure and execute? Who will have to wait and work 12 long months to maybe earn another chance at a title? We will find out soon! 

Let’s break down the 2024 USABMX Men’s and Women’s pro title chases. 

Remember, the pros use a different points structure than the amateurs. They have only 9 nationals that are part of the pro series, so only 18 chances at a score. You have to be much more consistent to get your scores in, and you can’t dodge the competition. All of your rivals will likely be at all the races, unless they are injured. 

Rider count points do not come into play for the pros, so it is strictly based off of results. This makes the math much easier and we can identify right now what the results need to be in order for different riders to win the championship. Just like with the amateurs, the Grands are double points. 

The R.O.C. is a last chance for a rider to move up or down and get one last score headed into the Grands. 

The R.O.C. is one main, but the Grands has 3 main events. Like a championship fight, there are extra rounds for our entertainment! 

A Main:

1st – 100

2nd – 90

3rd – 80

4th – 70

5th – 60

6th – 50

7th – 40

8th – 30

B Main:

1st – 20

2nd – 15

3rd – 10

4th – 5

*Points Doubled for Grands

Let’s start with the women. 

You have to be within 200 points in order to mathematically have a shot going into the grands. That leaves us with 7 riders who have a shot. I will start by breaking down the results needed to win. Remember, one more score is available at the ROC, but I will break down the points as they stand. Alise’s best bet is to win the R.O.C. to block anyone else from advancing their scores too much.  

Carly Kane

The longshot. She needs a list of crazy things to happen. She is 190 points back from Alise, so she needs to win the Grands, and have Alise score 0 points, meaning she has to get 5th or worse in the B main. Basically, she needs Alise to get motod. Good luck with that one. That’s not all, She would need Payton to ALSO not make the main. Molly would have to finish 6th or worse, and so on and so on. A .00001% chance for Carly, but with a good result she can move up into the top 5 overall and get a series overall bonus, so I assume that is the goal. Just going into the grands with a shot is an accomplishment in and of itself, add in a UCI Worlds Elite women final this season and Carly should be proud of her year. 

Lexis Colby 

Lexis is 10 points up on Carly, so she is in almost the exact same spot. A good result at ROC will bump her up, but she needs a list of things to happen to get the title. Huge improvements for her this year and will certainly be in the mix in Tulsa. 

Lauren Reynolds & Daleny Vaughn 

Lauren and Daleny are tied on 680 apiece. As it stands, If they win the Grands on Friday night, they finish the year with 880 points. Alise needs 7th or better at the Grands to stay in front of them. If Alise unclips and has mechanicals in all three mains and gets 8th overall, Payton would need to finish 6th or worse as well. 

Carly, Lexis, Lauren, and Daleny all have an outside shot, which is a huge accomplishment, but let’s get to the three racers who have a more realistic shot. 

Molly Simpson

Molly was on a TEAR the back half of this year….but she let a huge opportunity slip through her fingers in Rock Hill. Molly has 4 wins on the season and had all the momentum after winning in Tulsa and Austin. Alise had 6 wins before Rock Hill. Had Molly doubled in Rock Hill, she would be going into Tulsa with a winner take all scenario. Unfortunately for her, Alise is the most experienced professional BMX racer of all time, and did champion things in Rock Hill, winning both days to advance her score and Molly rode seemingly tight, failing to land on the podium either day. Title pressure is real folks. 

As it stands, Molly needs to win the Grands, Alise finish 7th or worse, and Payton finish 5th or worse. 

The best thing molly can do to help herself out is to win the R.O.C. and replace a 4th she currently holds, that moves her up 30 points to 730. If she does that, and wins the Grands, Alise would need to finish 5th or worse, and Payton 3th or worse. 

Molly won the Grands last year, as well as 4 races this year, so she is certainly capable, but even if she doubles up in Tulsa, she needs some help. 

Payton Ridenour

10 podiums on the year for Ms. Ridenour. An impressive season has put her in a great spot going into Tulsa. The Tulsa local will have a short 15 minute drive to the Expo Center to think about what she has to do. 

Even if she wins the ROC, it does not change the points spread going into the Grands. 

If she wins the Grands, she needs Alise to finish 3rd or worse. If Alise finishes 3rd, they are tied on points, but the Grands is the tiebreaker, and Payton would win.  If she finishes 2nd, she needs Alise to finish 4th or worse. Basically, there has to be someone to split them all the way down until if they are far enough back as listed above, and Molly wins. Then Molly can overtake them both. Unlikely. 

I don’t think I have ever seen Payton ride extremely aggressive or take someone out, but she has never been in this specific position. The best thing she can do is win, and hope someone else on this list can split her and Alise. 

Alise Willoughby

As outlined above, Alise in in the drivers seat. 8 wins on the season gave her a perfect score of 800.  A 1st or 2nd at the Grands, and title number (I’ve lost count, it’s like 46 now right?) is hers. It is so crazy to think about the fact that Alise won her first Women Pro title in 2006. 18 years ago. Most of her competition this weekend was still in diapers at that point. Insane. 

Vegas odds have it heavily favored for Alise to do Alise things. 

OK, now to the men. This one is going to get ROWDY! 

There are 4 men within the 200 point gap to have a mathematical shot. We will really focus on three of them as it is extremely likely the title will come down to those three. 

No matter what, we will have a new USABMX #1 men’s pro for the first time since Maris Stromberg’s in 2014. Since 2015, it has been split between Joris and myself.  A decade of dominance is drawing to a close. Who will establish themselves as the man to beat for the next decade? Will it be:

Drew Polk 

Drew has had a great season putting himself into the A mains consistently and proving that he belongs. Tip of the cap to Drew. In order to win the championship, he needs to win the Grands and have all of the top 3 ranked riders finish 7th or worse, meaning one has to miss the main. Unlikely. 

Kamren Larsen, Cameron Wood, Izaac Kennedy

• I will put these three together because the math is so simple. 

• The R.O.C. does not mean anything for them other than an ego battle and $1,000. No one can move up enough points to build a spread larger than 20 (one position at the Grands) so this one is truly a “warm up race” 

• Whoever finishes ahead of the other 2 at the Grands is your champion. 

• Winner take all situation is what you dream of as a kid. These types of things only happen a couple times in your career, and are truly special. 

2015 was the last time three riders entered Tulsa with a winner take all situation. This isn’t common, so get your popcorn ready! 

*Quick sidebar (and plug) As for me, I am proud to say that all 4 of these men use ODI CF grips. Along with Jeremy Smith, Ryan Tougas, Jordan Callum, Rayne Langford, and others, there is a real chance that 6, 7, even all 8 of the riders in the elite men’s class in Tulsa will use CF grips. Pretty awesome. Get yourself a set.

Ok back to it: 

Kamren started off the year with a BANG going into Cam Wood’s house at Black Mountain BMX and winning both days. He rattled off a few more wins, BUT all of his wins came before the Olympics. He has not produced results to the same level in the back half of the year as he had in the first half, and admitted recently on Instagram that he has been in a bit of a rut. He very nearly won day 2 in Rock Hill, so I am sure that gave him some confidence back. 

Cam and Izaac were both injured in the first half of the season and missed a few races. Since the Olympics, they are the only 2 riders to win a race, pretty much splitting wins in Louisville, Tulsa, Austin, and Rock hill. Cam won 5, Izaac won 3.  

Izaac and Cam are no strangers to close battles and throwing elbows, throw in Kam and with the title and $10,000 for the championship, $4,000 for the race win, Nic Long’s duffle bag dash, and sponsor bonuses on the line, winning the Grands is likely a $20,000+ payday. I’d put my mom over a turn for that. 

Cam and Kam are trying to bring the title back to the US for the first time since 2020 and add their name to the list alongside Hall of Fame riders like Randy Stumpfhauser, Bubba Harris, Gary Ellis, and Danny Nelson. 

Izaac is trying to keep the Chase Bicycles streak alive and earn title number 10 for the Chase crew. Adding his name alongside Aussies to win the American series like Warwick Stevenson, Sam Willoughby, and Khalen Young. 

Legacy is on the line Friday night in Tulsa. 

BUT wait….what about a spoiler? Anyone who could get in there and potentially mix it up with those 3? How about the GOAT? 

6 time and current champ Joris Daudet will be in Tulsa with a huge Gold number 1 on the back of his rainbow jersey. Has be been locked in training or enjoying a well-deserved glass of wine? We will see, but he is certainly more than capable of mixing up the results of those 3 and making the race even more interesting.  

Step 1 – make the final. 

Step 2 – stay calm (easier said than done) 

Step 3 - 3 laps to decide it all.

I’ll certainly have my popcorn ready! Who do you think will take it?